Nat Cat series Part 2: modeling climate change & impact on agriculture
Agriculture is one of the most vulnerable economic activities to climate change. Atmospheric variables most relevant for agriculture include temperature and precipitation. Even moderate weather anomalies such as reduced sunshine, can lead to significant crop yield loss High temperatures are a problem because they accelerate plant development. When this happens there is less time for growth and therefore less yield. Moreover, extreme heat itself decreases crop yield. Climate change does not only affect temperature, but all atmospheric variables, including precipitation. More erratic precipitation will also decrease crop yields. The impact of climate change is not uniform across crops and geographies. Uncertainties about climate change are high, but it is about the resilience of our society, economy, and pragmatically speaking of our industry. This is the most material call for action since the establishment of NatCat modelling in late 80s early 90s. SCOR does and sponsor research in the space of climate chanfe, thanks to PhD programs focusing just on this. SCOR also designed and implemented a 5-step framework that allows our leadership to predict how the risk will mutate in time and space.